March 01, 2025
The first 40 or so minutes of yesterday's oval office press talk (vid) went quite normal. Questions were asked and replies were given in general form, addressing the public. There was some mild banter. But then a breakdown (vid) occurred:
It was all destroyed when JD Vance, the US vice-president entered the conversation to declare: “The path to peace and the path to prosperity is maybe engaging in diplomacy.“We tried the pathway of Joe Biden of thumping our chest and pretending the Potus’s words counted more than Potus’s actions,” he declared.
To anyone who has spent time in or around the Ukraine war, such airy talk of “diplomacy” – as if it means anything without hard force to back it up – is exasperatingly naive.
Mr Zelensky should probably have let it slide. But he was not taking it.
“Can I ask you?” he asked, leaning towards Mr Vance.
“Sure,” replied Mr Vance.
...
“What kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about? What do you mean?”It was a mistake.
There followed a barrage of invective about Ukrainian ungratefulness – in front of the world’s media.
For anyone who remembers how the whole Ukraine conflict was initiated by the U.S., the hypocrisy played out here is overwhelming.
How can one, as Trump and Vance do, lament that the war has destroyed Ukraine and led to countless people dying for no good cause and, at the same time, demand that Ukraine be thankful for all the 'advice', weapons and money the U.S. has given in first place to drag Ukraine into a war and to wage it.
But Zelenski wasn't upset about U.S. hypocrisy. He was upset that he was told to make peace.
The bad mood he was in had already festered for some time. In late 2023 Simon Shuster had portrait Zelenski for Time:
On my first day in Kyiv, I asked one member of his circle how the President was feeling. The response came without a second’s hesitation: “Angry.”
...
[M]ost of all, Zelensky feels betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.But his convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.”
Trump and Vance tried to tell him - Zelenski exploded. Some say this was trap or set up. I and others disagree. It was Trump who wanted the 'mineral deal' to be signed. Why would he sabotage that?
It would have been easy for Zelenski to not react to Vance's interdiction but he instead started a fight. He even might have dreamed of a knock out.
The incident, in full view of the U.S. public, will allow Trump to drop Ukraine as the bad asset that it now is. As I commented yesterday:
What will Trump do now?Best guess:
- He will walk away from Ukraine. (No rare earth deal or anything else.)
- Europeans will be ignored (Macron had urged him to meet Zelenski ---> bad!)
- He will make a deal with Russia. Rare earth, lifting sanctions and much more.
There seems to be no regret by Zelenski who has failed to apologize.
Meanwhile USAID has stopped repairs of Ukraine's energy grid. Other U.S. support is highly endangered:
Trump administration press secretary Caroline Leavitt stated that the U.S. will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine because their priority is peace negotiations. This decision came after the controversy during Zelensky’s visit."We are no longer going to just write blank checks for a war in a very distant country without a real, lasting peace," Leavitt said.
Zelenski hopes that Europe will back him. But while some European bots claim to stand by Ukraine they have neither the men, money nor weapons to do so. There is no European unity on it:
Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are 'very unhappy' they were betrayed by being excluded from tomorrow's Ukraine summit in London. They 'have a plan... but they weren't invited' - Sky News
Zelenski will have to go - one way or the other. His former advisor, the slimy Oleksy Arestovych, is already offering himself as replacement:
Arestovych @arestovych - 14:03 UTC · Mar 1, 2025- Zelensky is not just proposing war - he’s proposing war without weapons.
He weakened the army (failed 55% of the defense procurement plan), lost U.S. support, and divided the country.
Without him, Ukraine would fight better and make peace faster and more effectively.
I stand for peace.
There is a way out - Zelensky, step down.
The Russians are the big winner in this. Ukraine is in a scuffle with its main sponsor. The western alliance has splintered. The enemies' frontline is falling apart.
Russia is opposed to Trump's main demand of a cease-fire along the current frontline. But Zelenski is blamed for sabotaging it.
I do not see how Zelenski can escape from this.
Posted by b on March 1, 2025 at 16:18 UTC | Permalink